Marc Faber: Aandelenmarkt omlaag, goud omhoog!
In een interview met Brian Sullivan op CNBC, doet de bekende analist Marc Faber (Gloom, Boom & Doom report) drie voorspellingen voor 2014.
1) Faber voorziet een stevige daling voor de Amerikaanse aandelenmarkt. Ook al zou het nog een stukje verder kunnen stijgen, volgens Faber is de top waarschijnlijk afgelopen november al gezet.
Faber zegt: "My sense is that at the present time, the US market is relatively expensive compared to foreign markets, especially to European markets and to emerging markets. On a cyclically-adjusted P/E [price-to-earnings] basis, it is actually going to return very little over the next seven to 10 years.”
2) Met name de hoogvliegende social media stocks ziet hij als te hoog geprijsd en zijn dus goede kandidaten om te shorten.
Faber zegt: "If you look at the entire market, some stocks are not terribly expensive and some stocks are very expensive. It's like in year 2000, not every stock was overpriced. At that time, the NASDAQ was grossly overvalued but, say, resource shares and so-called 'old economy' companies were relatively inexpensive or absolutely cheap. In the present instance, I think that stocks like Facebook, Tesla, Twitter, Netflix, [and] Veeva Systems are grossly overvalued and that the basket of shorts in these stocks will return you at least 30% next year."
3) De best presterende markten voor 2014 worden volgens Faber: goud, goudmijnaandelen en de Vietnamese aandelenmarkt.
Faber zegt: "I'd rather buy something that is reasonably priced. And, I think gold shares are very inexpensive. So a basket of gold shares I think next year could easily appreciate 30%."
"I think the Vietnamese stock market, which this year was up 22% [and] which is not bad for an emerging market, will continue to go up."